A recent report from digital asset investment firm 10x Research indicates that a decline in Bitcoin (BTC) prices to $45,000 may be imminent amidst increasing market volatility and descending trends within the cryptocurrency sector. Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x, highlights several critical factors underpinning this forecast, which are further examined by BeInCrypto through an assessment of salient on-chain metrics related to Bitcoin’s current market performance.

Currently, Bitcoin trades below the $55,000 threshold, following an all-time high of approximately $73,750 recorded in March. 10x Research has attributed this notable correction to shifts in the number of active Bitcoin addresses and the broader decisions made within the market. The report notes, “Bitcoin addresses peaked in November 2023 and subsequently witnessed a steep decline entering the first quarter of 2024. The reduction of Bitcoin held by short-term investors in April and the selling activity by long-term holders indicated a potential peak in the cycle,” as stated by the research firm.

Confirming these findings, BeInCrypto’s analysis of Bitcoin’s active addresses reveals a dramatic drop in participation. In November 2023, the number of active addresses reached approximately 1.20 million but fell to merely 612,000, reflecting a stark retreat from engagement with the cryptocurrency. This decline suggests waning interest and user participation in Bitcoin recently.

Additionally, the report underscores $1 billion in outflows from Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) this week, characterizing it as a bearish indicator. The study also cites a weakened U.S. economic landscape and substantial futures liquidations as other pivotal elements potentially contributing to a price decrease toward $45,000.

Data from Glassnode further reinforces this outlook, as the Mayer Multiple, a metric often utilized to gauge speculative bubbles in Bitcoin, currently stands at 0.8. Typically, a Mayer Multiple above 1 suggests a bullish market, while sub-1 readings indicate vulnerability to significant price drops. With Bitcoin’s current value falling below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), it is suggested that the cryptocurrency may encounter further declines below the $50,000 mark.

Crucially, the weekly BTC/USD chart reveals that traders commenced this month at price levels reminiscent of those seen in November 2021, shortly before the onset of the Bitcoin bear market in 2022. As Bitcoin’s value decreased towards the end of 2021, it plummeted to $36,500 in January 2022 after losing support around the $50,000 level. A similar support range presently exists at approximately $50,000, and Bitcoin appears poised to test this level once more. If such a test occurs, it could lead to a further descent toward $48,338, with a potential approach to $45,000.

Failure to rebound from this crucial support level could trigger a drop closer to $40,000. Nevertheless, a reversal in fortunes may transpire should the Mayer Multiple ascend past the 1 mark, indicating a possible resumption of a bullish trend, which could propel Bitcoin beyond its previous all-time high.

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